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Economic Fall of Pakistan in 2020

According to Wikipedia, Pakistan has the 23rd largest economy in the world while having a population of around 212 Million, which spots her at 6th in the world in terms of population. According to the census in 2019 it has 1,357 $ GDP per capita while the undocumented economy is around 36% of its overall economy. $1,357 allows

it to take the 154th place among countries all over the world. According to the studies held is Sep 2016, Pakistan with the potential of growth having $24 Billion reserves and foreign investors were eager to invest in this growing market. World bank also stated in his reports that Pakistan can get a boost in Economy at a rate of 5.4% by 2018. But due to unrest and dramatic changes in Political instability indicators shows A downfall and growth rate has a disaster flop and shows 2.9% according to the World Bank. In the year 2017 Pakistan’s GDP crossed $ 1 Trillion in terms of purchasing while in May 2019 a depression and devaluation of Pakistani currency up to 30% are observed in the Market.

Few debatable factors are creating hurdles in economic growth.

  • Unstable Political Situation
  • Non-serious Ministers
  • Inconsistent Policies
  • Un-favourable conditions for Investors

But the most important thing is the irregular and inconsistent political governments in the country, although we are facing the same situation since the birth of the country but from last 5 years it becomes worst when the whole country was in the wave of political awareness, although this was the sign of mental maturity, in fact, it badly affected the economic conditions in country.

Current Govt unveiled its first budget for the FY 2019-2020 on June 11, and due to the strong opposition barely able to pass it in the parliament, according to the budget, all the indicators as compare to previous Years were far below.

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According to the Budget, our GDP will be as fellows…   

Source: Budget in Brief 2009-2020

Net revenue forecast to reach Rs3.5 trillion; fiscal deficit to rise to 7.2pc of GDP. A graph clearly shows a steep line as a downfall in the Growth rate, which shows the economic condition of Pakistan During the regime of the current Govt. A lack of business activity in-country is the result of the Un-professional approach of policy and budget makers because They emphasize debt from IMF and friend countries rather than Creating or providing a favorable business environment for investors for business and job creation. Increase in Debt and decrease in business opportunities and devaluation of rupee is a major factor of increase in interest rate/inflation in-country.

According to the source (Budget in Brief 2009-2020), the Estimated Inflation rate in FY might remain between 11-13 % which is more than double as compared to FY 2018-19.

Govt is eager to get loans from IMF and friend countries on their conditions, and according to the conditions state had to collect 1,071 Arab Rupees in the first quarter of the FY, should issue refund on taxes up to 70 Arab taxes and make sure that quantity of the running debt should not increase from 2300 Arab rupees.

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But in the 1st quarter govt is far behind the target and facing the deficit of more than 114 Arab Rupees. Which makes the equation so simple now govt has to collect 5500 Arab rupees per month in the remaining 9 months to meet the target.

In October another bolt from the blue is waiting for Pakistan in shape of FTFA, may God help our policymakers and peace on us.

Govt assured IMF that their deficit Budget which indicates an 8.1 % deficit in GDP will remain at 7.8% in the current FY, but our actual defect was 8.8%, which shows that all of our policies and parameters are fake and unachievable.    

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Hassam Durrani

Written by Hassam Durrani

Columnist at AAGAHI.PK, Raabta.Net, Daily Frontier Post, Daily Leader, Coordination Sectery PFUC, YouTuber

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